Research interests

The interdisciplinary character of my research activity plays an important role in my effort to advance and disseminate knowledge at the interface of climate, environment, economics and data analysis. In the broader context of climate impact research, my field of expertise is that of trying to better understand the complex coupled behavior of the socio-economic systems and the climate systems, each of which is highly complex and nonlinear.

My work has led to significant mathematical improvements and a better understanding of the advanced spectral method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA).  In the data analysis of complex coupled systems, the improved SSA methodology greatly helps the identification and interpretation of the underlying mechanisms generating an observed time series.

My climate research covers data analysis of global climatic teleconnections and advances in a better understanding of interannual variability, specifically of shared atmosphere-ocean mechanisms and their changes over time. Furthermore, my research delves into a better understanding of intraseasonal timescales, more recently called sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S), and which range from the deterministic limit of atmospheric predictability (about 10 days) up to a season (say, 100 days). These timescales are of particular importance to sub-seasonal prediction.

In my socio-economic research, the improved SSA methodology has provided strikingly new insights in the study of business cycles and has helped us better understand synchronization of world economic activity. A complex-valued extension of SSA helps us explore the cluster configuration of synchronization, as well as identify several major economic events that have markedly influenced world economic activity in the postwar era. Moreover, my work has led to a better understanding of the influence of interannual climate variability on the agricultural sector in the Sahel region.

Research topics

Mathematics

• Advanced spectral methods -- Singular Spectrum Analysis
• Monte Carlo hypothesis testing
• Data analysis of complex coupled systems -- Synchronization
• Data-driven low-order modeling and empirical model reduction

Climate

• Global climate teleconnections
• Interannual variability of shared atmosphere-ocean mechanisms and their changes over time
• Intraseasonal variability and sub-seasonal prediction

Socio-economics

• Synchronization of world economic activity, cross-country relationships and international business cycles
• Deterministic causes of macroeconomic fluctuations
• Vulnerability of an economy to exogenous shocks, such as climatic extreme events
• Influence of interannual climate variability on the agricultural sector in the Sahel region

Environment

• Influence of interannual climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics
• Effects of temperature variation on fish population structure